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COVID-19 Real Estate Market Report | April 2020

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Hi There!

How are you all doing? We have been relatively quiet over here working behind the scenes, trying to adapt to the new normal and watching the market carefully. We have had conversations with a number of clients, developers and brokers this month about the market as we navigate through this unprecedented time. The media has been quick to jump on the information and we have seen a number of sensationalized headlines that don’t quite give the readers the full story.

Today, we wanted to give you our take on some of the Toronto Real Estate Board data from April 2019, March 2020 and April 2020 in the GTA in this Real Estate Market Report.

There is no question the sales numbers and price data is down – given COVID-19 this should not come as a surprise. Sales are down 67% – a pretty significant number, right? Is this reason to panic? We don’t think so and here is why:

The 67% drop in sales coincides with a 64% drop in new listings. We cannot sell what is not listed. The drop in sales we are experiencing is clearly explained by the lack of new listings. This data alone does not indicate massive drops in property value or homes sitting an extended amount of days on the market.

In April 2019 there were a total of 9,005 sales vs. 2,975 sales in April of 2020. Total new listings in April 2019 was 17,212 vs. 6,174 in April 2020.

Most experts and economists state that a 3-6 month supply is a healthy and balanced market. Currently, the detached market is sitting with a 2.5 month supply still showing signs of a seller’s market. Alternatively, the condo market is showing a 6.5 month supply and erring more towards a balanced market. Pre-COVID-19 the GTA was weighted towards a seller’s market with limited buying supply in both condos and detached homes.

Another statistic we are going to look at today is days on market. This is the number of days an active listing takes to sell. It’s an important consideration as it demonstrates the absorption speed of listing and buying activity in the market place. Year over year (April 2019 to April 2020) there has been no change to the average 19 days on market.

This stat demonstrates that buyers are still active in the marketplace and properties are selling within historically supported ranges. This is positive data when we factor this into the challenges associated with selling and buying during COVID-19. We have, however, seen an increase in days on market reported between March 2020 (13 DOM) to April 2020 (19 DOM).

We entered COVID-19 during the seller’s market conditions that were trending towards a very fast-paced spring with limited supply.

COVID-19 has slowed this trend down.

The average sales price in the GTA for April of 2020 was $812,392 is in line and slightly with the year over year average price for April 2019 of $820,373. We have seen a drop in average sales value from March of 2020 ($902,680) to April 2020 ($821,392). We much of this change can be attributed to the drop-in luxury sales since the onset of COVID-19 that pushes the average pricing higher.

For our purposes, we consider luxury properties to be priced over $2 million. Our assumption is supported by the list to sale ratio demonstrating that units sold are achieving an incredible 99% list to sold ratio. This 99% list to sold ratio is indicating most properties and especially those in Toronto’s are achieving pre-COVID-19 pricing and close to their list price upon selling.

This data, in our opinion, is not indicating a drop in value.

COVID-19 has delayed many buyers and sellers entering the market as we all navigate a new normal when viewing and selling properties. We are advising our clients to hold off selling if they can for the time being. However, if you are in a position to buy or invest now is a great time to get into the market. We have found less competition and great assignments options out there.

We hope you found this real estate market report useful. As always, we are here to support your real estate needs providing you with transparent information to support you in your investment process. We are currently working digitally to support all of our clients. If you are looking to discuss these stats further, are thinking of buying or are interested in the value of your current property please book an online appointment with us.